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Box Office Predictions & Analysis (28/07/17)

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The much derided Emoji Movie and the much anticipated Atomic Blonde are set for release this weekend and without much competition both would clean up with great debuts, but Dunkirk, Girls Trip and even War for Planet of the Apes offer sufficient competition.

Let’s get down to it.

The Emoji Movie
Synopsis: The movie nobody wanted.

Budget: $50 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 3%
Current Box Office: $0 million
Domestic Box Office: $0 million
Prior Weekend Box Office: $0 million
Our Prediction: $30 million

Comments: Reviews are so, so shockingly bad, but a sheer lack of alternative options for families really helps the Emoji Movie this weekend. $30 million should be enough to beat Dunkirk for the top spot, but The Emoji Movie needs to perform well on its second weekend.

Dunkirk
Synopsis: Christopher Nolan’s back!

Budget: $100 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 92%
Current Box Office: $131.6 million
Domestic Box Office: $74.7 million
Prior Weekend Box Office: $50.5 million.
Our Prediction: $27 million

Comments: Great buzz and reviews should help Dunkirk retain a good chunk of its audience from its $50.5 million opening last weekend. I’m expecting a softer decline of 40-50% with $27 million.

Atomic Blonde
Synopsis: Charlie Theron plays Bond.

Budget: $30 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 75%
Current Box Office: $0 million
Domestic Box Office: $0 million
Prior Weekend Box Office: $0 million
Our Prediction: $24 million

Comments: Atomic Blonde is an attempt to create a Bond franchise with a female lead and with a modest budget of $30 million and Charlize Theron in the titular role, Atomic Blonde should definitely succeed at the box office. I’m estimated $22 million based on Theron’s draw.

Elsewhere: Girls Trip should add another $20 million, possibly challenging Atomic Blonde. Spider-Man: Homecoming should add $10 million to its toll.

Next Weekend: Idris Elba in The Dark Tower and Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit.

Last Year: Jason Bourne debuted at number one with $59.2M for Universal.

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13 Comments »

  1. There isn’t a lot between the top 4. I would be surprised if it finished exactly like that. Atomic Blonde is tracking higher and exploded on Thursday evening according to Variety.

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  2. I just hope Atomic Blonde bombs. Theron is already an insufferable, snotty, full of herself bitch. If this success, her ego will become a fucking zeppelin over Hollywood.

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  3. is a good thing that Atomic blond underperformed. Hollywood can take a good deep breath of relief. I hope it all ends here, no franchise for you missy. I think it will hardly break even, internationally nobody gives a crap. So first it was Scarlett and now is Theron: overinflated egomaniac divas thinking their name and “awesomeness” alone are enough to create big hits out of shitty ideas, both failing miserably. And as for female driven franchises, until now, the only one succeeding at it was Gal Gadot, of course helped by the history and brand of her character. Maybe not the best actress around, but a hard working, humble and graceful chick. She handled the pressure over such an iconic character and the criticism over her casting so well, and now is a success. Let’s see how Brie does it, I’m skeptical though. She lacks charisma and is way too young for that role.

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