Box Office Analysis (15/09/17)

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It’s the second weekend of the box office Juggernaut that is It. The Stephen King adaptation smashed records last week when it grossed over a $100 million domestically and started a new movie franchise for Warner Bros.

This weekend It should continue its reign over the box office with a stunning $60 million. That’s as much as It was originally predicted to gross in its opening weekend, but It is set to take that much alone in its second weekend for around a healthy 50% decline.

American Assassin debuts at the box office and budgeted at $33 million and featuring a cast lacking in star power, a decent $12 million is the best American Assassin can hope for.

It’s enough to beat fellow debutante Mother!, which stars Jennifer Lawrence and Javier Bardem. Mother! should find itself reeling in $10-12 million, which is acceptable given the competition for the horror audience in It.

Last Year: Tom Hanks’ Sully premiered to $35 million.

Next Week: Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Battle of the Sexes &  The LEGO Ninjago Movie.

Last Week

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Box Office Round-Up (11/09/17)

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It’s Monday night, which means the working week begins and the weekend at the box office is OVER until the end of the week. I think I can speak for us all and say we need a weekend like this one, especially after the terrible box office at the end of August and the disappointing box office throughout Summer overall.

It reigned supreme like we expected, but what none of us expected is by how much. The Stephen King adaptation rocketed to a $123 million weekend domestically even with Hurricane Irma effectively the box office in Florida. Internationally, It brought in an estimated $62 million from 46 markets. Overall, $179 million. Phenomenal business.

In second place, Home Again, starring Reese Witherspoon, was dwarfed by the monster that was It and only found $9 million. On a budget of $15 million (not including marketing), that isn’t too bad, but it’s far away from Witherspoon’s heyday.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard added $4.85 million and Annabelle: Creation found $4 million.

  1. It — $123.1 million
  2. Home Again – $9 million
  3. The Hitman’s Bodyguard – $4.85 million
  4. Annabelle: Creation – $4 million
  5. Wind River – $3.2 million

Last Year: Tom Hanks’ Sully premiered to $35 million.

Next Week: Jennifer Lawrence stars in Darren Aronofsky’s Mother!

Fun Fact: It is the highest grossing opening weekend for a R-Rated horror movie, beating Paranormal Activity 3, and the highest grossing opening weekend in September, knocking Hotel Transylvania 2 and Gravity away.

Last Week

 

 

Box Office Predictions & Analysis (08/09/17)

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It has arrived and by that I could only mean the actual movie, It, based on the novel by Stephen King and, of course, the original miniseries released in 1990 and starring Tim Curry as the iconic Pennywise clown.

Buzz is through for the roof for the remake with trades predicting a record-breaking weekend for movie, which is intended to kickstart a new franchise for Warner Bros. I’m going to try and be conservative and tip It for a super $75 million over the weekend.

If It meets my prediction that means the movie will break a record and become the largest grossing opening weekend for an R-Rated horror movie, beating Paranormal Activity 3.

That’s more than enough to wash away the foul memories of the box office disaster that was August.

Elsewhere, Open Road Fims’ Home Again, starring Reese Witherspoon, offers non-It fans a nice alternative and I’m estimating the small budgeted romantic comedy for a decent $10 million.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Wind River should each add $6 million and $4 million respectively.

Last Year: Tom Hanks’ Sully premiered to $35 million.

Next Week: Jennifer Lawrence stars in Darren Aronofsky’s Mother!

Last Week

 

 

Box Office Results (04/09/17)

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The worst summer at the box office has closed out, meaning we can move on from this horrible season, cherish memories of Wonder Woman and Guardians of the Galaxy 2, and pretend that nothing ever happened.

For a refresher, click here.

Our final weekend was far from a BIG MONEY WEEKEND and Lionsgate’s The Hitman’s Bodyguard finished atop the weekend chart for a third straight weekend in a row with an estimated $10.25 million. That’s seriously all it took to top the box office this weekend.

Annabelle: Creation finished 2nd with $7.3 million and Wind River took 3rd with $5.86 million, whereas animated feature Leap! added $4.9 million and Logan Lucky reeled in $4.4 million.

Warner Bros. and New Line have the IT remake coming next weekend, which is tracking well and will likely smash records at the September box office. That will hopefully wash away this foul weekend from my memory.

Until Friday, Box Office Regulars!

 

Box Office Analysis (01/09/17)

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Summer is coming to an end and the box office has been disappointing and deplorable according to most film analysers like myself. Studios have also expressed dismay at the numbers and the overall box office is reported to be down a terrible 10% from last year.

The Hollywood Reporter are calling the box office performance a historic low and The DailyWire blamed ‘failing franchises’ and ‘dirty comedies’ for the unimpressive period.

Sony’s Baby Driver may be the only unexpected beam of light in the pathetic season with the R Rated Comedy (The House, Rough Night) genre really suffering, as well as the big budget franchise hopefuls like Valerian and King Arthur: The Legend of the Sword.

The final weekend of the summer is ending with a whimper than a bang with Ryan Reynolds-Samuel L. Jackson team-up, the Hitman’s Bodyguard reigning supreme with just over $7 million.

Our friends at Box Office Mojo have compiled a top 10 list:

WEEKEND FORECAST

The Hitman’s Bodyguard (3,370 theatres) – $7.1 M
Annabelle: Creation (3,358 theatres) – $5.1 M
Wind River (2,602 theatres) – $4.0 M
Leap! (2,705 theatres) – $4.0 M
Dunkirk (2,752 theatres) – $4.0 M
Logan Lucky (2,975 theatres) – $3.3 M
Spider-Man: Homecoming (2,036 theatres) – $2.7 M
Hazlo Como Hombre (382 theatres) – $2.7 M
The Emoji Movie (2,108 theatres) – $2.3 M
Birth of the Dragon (1,633 theatres) – $2.3 M

Box Office Results (07/08/17)

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Johnny Box Office is back with a quick box office round-up after TGL’s week long vacation and one of the worst weekends of the summer for movies. The Dark Tower, which was the victim of a brutal Variety hit piece recently for its notorious production issues, debuted amidst hard competition in Dunkirk, The Emoji Movie and Girls Trip.

The Dark Tower, which is based on a Stephen King book series and stars Idris Elba, disappointed with $19.5 million from the domestic audience. One of The Dark Tower’s advantages is a relatively low budget ($60 million) and international appeal, however, and the science fantasy film is expected to find more of an audience in international waters than at home in the States.

Dunkirk held well in its third weekend with a healthy $17.6 million and is now the third highest original live action movie of the year so far with $133 million. Warner Bros. will be pleased.

Despite dire reviews, The Emoji Movie added $12.4 million to its now $49.5 million domestic gross. Sony will be aiming for around the $100 million mark by the time the movie’s run is over. Acceptable for a movie with a $50 million budget and those reviews.

I’ve been Johnny Box Office with your box office round-up. See you on Friday for my fuller predictions and analysis. Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L Jackson’s The Hitman’s Bodyguard is amongst the new releases.

Box Office Predictions & Analysis (28/07/17)

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The much derided Emoji Movie and the much anticipated Atomic Blonde are set for release this weekend and without much competition both would clean up with great debuts, but Dunkirk, Girls Trip and even War for Planet of the Apes offer sufficient competition.

Let’s get down to it.

The Emoji Movie
Synopsis: The movie nobody wanted.

Budget: $50 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 3%
Current Box Office: $0 million
Domestic Box Office: $0 million
Prior Weekend Box Office: $0 million
Our Prediction: $30 million

Comments: Reviews are so, so shockingly bad, but a sheer lack of alternative options for families really helps the Emoji Movie this weekend. $30 million should be enough to beat Dunkirk for the top spot, but The Emoji Movie needs to perform well on its second weekend.

Dunkirk
Synopsis: Christopher Nolan’s back!

Budget: $100 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 92%
Current Box Office: $131.6 million
Domestic Box Office: $74.7 million
Prior Weekend Box Office: $50.5 million.
Our Prediction: $27 million

Comments: Great buzz and reviews should help Dunkirk retain a good chunk of its audience from its $50.5 million opening last weekend. I’m expecting a softer decline of 40-50% with $27 million.

Atomic Blonde
Synopsis: Charlie Theron plays Bond.

Budget: $30 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 75%
Current Box Office: $0 million
Domestic Box Office: $0 million
Prior Weekend Box Office: $0 million
Our Prediction: $24 million

Comments: Atomic Blonde is an attempt to create a Bond franchise with a female lead and with a modest budget of $30 million and Charlize Theron in the titular role, Atomic Blonde should definitely succeed at the box office. I’m estimated $22 million based on Theron’s draw.

Elsewhere: Girls Trip should add another $20 million, possibly challenging Atomic Blonde. Spider-Man: Homecoming should add $10 million to its toll.

Next Weekend: Idris Elba in The Dark Tower and Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit.

Last Year: Jason Bourne debuted at number one with $59.2M for Universal.

Box Office Results (24/07/17)

 

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As promised, this weekend was a BIG MONEY WEEKEND with Dunkirk knocking it out of the park. It wasn’t all good news, however, Valerian stumbled out of the gate and failed to make a mark.

Let’s get down to it.

Click here for a refresher.

Dunkirk
Synopsis: Christopher Nolan’s back!

Budget: $150 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 92%
Current Box Office: $107.4 million
Domestic Box Office: $50.5 million
Weekend Box Office: $50.5 million.
Our Prediction: $60 million

Comments: Lower than I predicted, which suggests the world war disadvantage played a part, but still a healthy $50.5 million for Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk. Second weekend is important for an audience that allegedly skewered older according to Box Office Mojo.

Slightly more than Interstellar’s $47 million, which boasted a starrier cast.

Girls Trip
Synopsis: Who is going to watch this?

Budget: $27.7 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 88%
Current Box Office: $30.3 million
Domestic Box Office: $30.3 million
Weekend Box Office: $30.3 million
Our Prediction: $29 million

Comments: Girls Trip eclipsed its budget already with a $30 million opening, $7 million more than 2016’s Bad Moms which grossed over $100 million domestically. Great opening weekend for Girls Trip.

War for the Planet of the Apes
Synopsis: Another ape movie I won’t see.

Budget: $150 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 94%
Current Box Office: $174.7 million
Domestic Box Office: $97.7 million
Weekend Box Office: $20.4 million
Our Prediction: $24 million

Comments: War flopped big time this weekend, losing 60% of its audience after its opening. War is likely to be the worst performer in the franchise by far. $20.4 million.

Elsewhere: Spider-Man: Homecoming added $22 million as expected. Valerian should debuted to a disappointing $17 million.

Next Weekend: Atomic Blonde & The Emoji Movie.

Last Year: Star Trek Beyond opened to a good-but-disappointing $59.3 million.

Box Office Predictions & Analysis (21/07/17)

 

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BIG MONEY WEEKEND incoming, box office regulars. Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk, Girl’s Trip and Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets are all new releases, and War for the Planet of the Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming are still reeling in audiences.

Let’s get down to it.

Dunkirk
Synopsis: Christopher Nolan’s back!

Budget: $150 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 92%
Current Box Office: $0 million
Domestic Box Office: $0 million
Prior Weekend Box Office: $0 million.
Our Prediction: $60 million

Comments: Reviews insist Dunkirk is amongst the greatest war movies ever and Christopher Nolan is one of those rare directors that appeals to audiences, so Dunkirk should find a sizeable amount this weekend.

It isn’t all positive. Unfortunately world war movies tend to gross less for some reason, so Dunkirk does have that as a disadvantage.

More than Interstellar’s $47 million. Less than the Dark Knight Rise’s $160 million. I’m expecting $60 million.

Girls Trip
Synopsis: Who is going to watch this?

Budget: $27.7 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 88%
Current Box Office: $0 million
Domestic Box Office: $0 million
Prior Weekend Box Office: $0 million
Our Prediction: $29 million

Comments: Director Malcolm D. Lee has a winning track record with black comedies, reviews are solid and the cast is recognisable. Huge buzz and a summer comedy will pay off Girls Trip with $29 million.

War for the Planet of the Apes
Synopsis: Another ape movie I won’t see.

Budget: $150 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 94%
Current Box Office: $129.2 million
Domestic Box Office: $77.3 million
Weekend Box Office: $56.5 million
Our Prediction: $24 million

Comments: War should decline over 50% after its opening weekend, which isn’t great news since the movie’s opening wasn’t as high as expected. $24 million.

Elsewhere: Spider-Man: Homecoming should add $22 million. Valerian should debut low to about $15 million.

Next Weekend: Atomic Blonde & The Emoji Movie.

Last Year: Star Trek Beyond opened to a good-but-disappointing $59.3 million.

Box Office Results (17/07/17)

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This weekend promised and delivered BIG MONEY with Planet of the Apes beating out Spider-Man for the top spot, but audiences declined at theatres, suggesting summer is reaching the end and the BIG MONEY period is almost over for the year.

Let’s get down to it.

Click here for a refresher.

War for the Planet of the Apes
Synopsis: Another ape movie I won’t see.

Budget: $150 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 94%
Current Box Office: $0 million
Domestic Box Office: $0 million
Weekend Box Office: $56.5 million
Our Prediction: $75 million

Comments: Fox adjusted projections upon great buzz and phenomenal reviews, but War for the Planet of the Apes only managed to gross within its original projections range.

Less than Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. More in line with Rise of the Planet of the Apes.

Disappointing for our prediction, as well as industry estimates.

Spider-Man: Homecoming
Synopsis: Another Spider-Man reboot. Seriously.

Budget: $175 million
Rotten Tomatoes: 97%
Current Box Office: $469.3 million
Domestic Box Office: $208.2 million
Weekend Box Office: $45.2 million.
Our Prediction: $53 million

Comments: Homecoming declined larger than we expected, losing 61% of its audience after a big opening in contrast to our expected 55%. It is line, however, with 2016’s Captain America: Civil War, which declined 60% in its second weekend.

Elsewhere: Despicable Me 3 added $18.9 million, whereas The Big Sick reeled in $7.6 million and Edgar Wright’s Baby Driver added $8.8 million.

Next Weekend: Dunkirk is the big one. Valerian is another.

Last Year: The Secret Life of Pets took in $50.8 million in its second weekend.